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First Capital recommendations Bond market: Bullish

Daily FT – 12.07.2018

Share Market Sri Lanka

We expect the yield curve in Government securities to peak during 3Q in 2018, and register a slow downtrend. Despite having some pressure in 1Q2019 it is not expected to be as high as 3Q2018. Thereby, from bearishness at the start of 2018, we are now bullish on bonds beyond 3Q2018. We believe 1Y, 5Y and 10Y trade within the bands of 9.0%-10.0%, 10.0%-11.0% & 10.5%-11.5%. However, it should also be noted that any breakaway from reform program (deviations affecting IMF program) or political deadlock may result in breaking the upper bands of the tenors.